I’m just back from my training course in Florence with the intuition on why empirical Management works. Yes, it’s true. I figured out a simple explanation on the reason of it. Before giving my impression I would like to present an exercise I proposed to my attendee to help them in having confidence on estimation. They come from the same area, and they really know well what is there including best ways to drive in when there’s traffic congestion. I’ve started creating a Product Backlog having four routes to cities around Italy and requesting them to plan where they can bring me in 30 minutes. I’ve prioritized all the routes in the way. The first is really understandable, and the last is an Unknown City for them. Having it on the backlog I’ve started asking them which of those features can be implemented in the next 30 minutes. Consciously they’ve chosen the first feature. Before analyzing the Sprint Backlog of the selected featured with them I tried to do an Experiment about the Empirical Approach. To do this I’ve given a complexity rate of five points priority to the first feature and asked them to rate all the requested feature without thinking to much. Exercise took 3 minutes. - Second complexity was: 15 points of complexity; - Third complexity was: 25 points of complexity; - Fourth complexity was: 45 points of complexity. Having the feeling they can do five complexity each “sprint” I assumed a team velocity of five points of complexity per sprint. This mean that: - Second feature is approximatively estimated three sprints; - Third feature is approximatively estimated five sprints; - Fourth complexity is approximatively estimated nine sprints. Well the possible feature I asked them to estimate was the four cities I’ve touched coming back home and they gave me a reasonable idea of how many time or sprints it takes to get back. The surprise is that, even the team doesn’t know some of the place (third and fourth), they did a reasonable plan making me think that from Florence to home it takes 4.30 hours. Well it has taken 4 hours and 15 minutes. The magic is they’ve said 45. Why they haven’t said 100 or 1000 or 10000? This empirical approach work because, there’s no machine, no algorithms that predict things. There is a key element that is a Sum Of Super Computer that is the group and their brain. They did the estimation thinking about their experience discussing each other and sharing knowledge. They superiority – in respect of computers and algorithms – is the ability to think by metaphors and to regulate optimistic and pessimistic position in an intelligent discussion. Becoming familiar with estimation like this need time, than experience. It was the first time they did an empirical estimation and they still think there a sort of trick behind. It’s shocking how could be easy to give a projection on how things empirically will go. Every sprint they will commit their velocity, and every sprint their knowledge increase making complexity simpler and having things optimized on the experience.